Friday, September 6, 2019

US: Divergence between the industrial and the services sectors continues – TD Securities

Analysts at TD Securities, notes that the August ISM non-manufacturing index continued to highlight the divergence between the industrial and the services sectors, as so far the woes from the trade war and global weakness affecting manufacturing production appear not to have spilled over into the rest of the economy.

Key Quotes

“In the details, the index exceeded expectations, jumping to a six-month high at 56.4 from 53.7 before (mkt 56.4). Most of the key components were strong, with new orders (to 60.3 from 54.1) and business activity (to 61.5 from 53.1) leading the way.”
“The only negative read in an otherwise strong report was the decline in the employment component to its lowest level since March 2017 at 53.1 from a strong 56.2, which would suggest an slowdown ahead in service-sector employment which is not surprising at this stage of the cycle.”

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Thursday, September 5, 2019

EUR/USD Recovers, GBP/USD Rallies, USD/CAD Eyes BoC Risk - US Market Open

MARKET DEVELOPMENT –EUR/USD Recovers, GBP/USD Rallies, USD/CAD Eyes BoC Risk

DailyFX 2019 FX Trading Forecasts

Equities: Global equities are notably firmer following the announcement by Hong Kong’s Carrie Lam that the controversial extradition bill that sparked protests for 3-months will be withdrawn. Consequently, this has spurred risk-on sentiment with European and US equity futures trading higher throughout today’s session. That said, following yesterday’s surprise contraction in the US ISM report, eyes will be on key tier 1 US data during the weak, particularly as the weak ISM employment subcomponent raises concerns over this weeks ADP and NFP reports.
GBP: The first day back to parliament for PM Johnson kicked off with defeat in the House of Commons after a cross-party motion to delay the UK’s departure from the EU until January 31st, 2020 had been passed. In response, PM Johnson called for a snap-election to take place on October 15th, however, with opposition parties viewing this as a way to push forward with a no-deal Brexit, the PM is expected to struggle to achieve the 2/3 of MPs needed to support him until the delay bill is passed. As such, while this has seen a no-deal Brexit threat edge lower, thus sparking a short squeeze in GBP/USD, the road ahead remains an uncertain one for the Pound.
EUR: Better than expected Eurozone services PMI data has helped the Euro recover, which in turn has reclaimed the 1.1000 handle. Alongside this, the Euro had been further boosted by the ECB President nominee, Christine Lagarde, who stated that the ECB must be mindful with regard to negative effects of unconvential polices, suggesting that the next ECB President may not be major advocate of significant policy stimulus.
CAD: The Canadian Dollar has traded in subdued fashion despite the 2% surge in Brent crude futures. Market participants await the BoC monetary policy, where interest rates are likely to be left unchanged. However, focus will be on whether the central bank sets the tone for a potential move at the October monetary policy report where money markets are pricing in a 66% chance of a 25bps cut. (full analysis)





EUR/USD Recovers, GBP/USD Rallies, USD/CAD Eyes BoC Risk - US Market Open

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When are the German Factory Orders and how could they affect EUR/USD?




German Factory Orders overview

The German data scheduled for release at 06:00 GMT is expected to show the Factory Orders dropped at a seasonally adjusted 1.3% year-on-year in July, following a 3.36% slide in June.

Manufacturing PMI hit 7-year low in July

The headline IHS Markit/BME Germany Manufacturing PMI – a single-figure snapshot of the performance of the manufacturing economy – sank to a seven-year low of 43.2 in July, mainly due to the steepest drop in new export orders since 2009.
Put simply, German manufacturers went into full retrenchment mode in July. Therefore, the Factory Orders are unlikely to surprise with a positive print.

Impact on EUR/USD

That the German economy is experiencing a slowdown is generally accepted by now and priced to a greater extent. Further, EUR/USD's daily chart is flashing a short-term bullish reversal, as discussed earlier today.
Also, investors are buying risk in response to new optimism on a possible US-China trade dispute resolution and the fading prospect of a hard Brexit.
Put simply, a bigger-than-expected drop in the German Factory Orders is needed to put the EUR under pressure.
The common currency will likely rise toward the resistance at 1.1064, as suggested by the daily chart if the Factory Orders print in line with the estimates or blow past expectations.

About German Factory Orders

The Factory orders released by the Deutsche Bundesbank is an indicator that includes shipments, inventories, and new and unfilled orders. An increase in the factory order total may indicate an expansion in the German economy and could be an inflationary factor. It is worth noting that the German Factory barely influences, either positively or negatively, the total Eurozone GDP. A high reading is positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is negative.

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Monday, August 26, 2019

US President Trump aides say he isn’t ordering US companies out of China – WSJ

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reports the weekend’s comments by the US President Trump’s top Economic Adviser Kudlow and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, as they clarified on Trump’s Friday’s tweet, ordering ordered US companies to look for alternatives to China after China said it would add more tariffs to US imports.
Kudlow said that Trump has no intent to invoke emergency powers and force companies to relocate operations from China.
Mnuchin noted that Trump wants US firms to start looking beyond China while adding that US President’s reference to the Fed Chair Powell as enemy not 'literal'.
China’s President Xi has become an enemy on trade issues, Mnuchin said.
The softer tones by the US officials on the trade issue combined with the Chinese Vice-Premier Liu's conciliatory remarks will likely help ease some nerves in Asia, as the risk-off trades appear to have eased off a bit.

Yen Gains, Stocks to Drop as Trade-War Ramps Up

(Aug 26): The yen climbed and stocks were headed for steep losses in Asia after the U.S.-China trade war ratcheted up. The yuan retreated.
Equity futures indicated losses of more than 2% in Tokyo and Hong Kong. On Friday, President Donald Trump announced additional levies on Chinese imports and called for American companies to pull out of Asia’s largest economy after China said it would impose retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods. Trump acknowledged having second thoughts on escalating the trade war, only for his top spokeswoman to clarify he meant he regretted not raising tariffs even more. The yen touched a fresh 2019 high against the greenback. The Aussie and kiwi dipped.
The latest turn in the trade war comes during an already tumultuous August for financial markets amid concerns of slowing global economic growth. On Friday, Trump bumped existing tariffs on Chinese goods to 30% from 25% and planned duties to 15% from 10%. That followed retaliatory levies from China, which indicated it will follow through with tariffs on $75 billion of U.S. goods it announced Friday and fight the trade war to the end, according to an editorial in the state-run People’s Daily.
“Friday’s events raise the risk of an all-out economic war between the U.S. and China,” said Thomas Harr, global head of fixed-income and commodity research at Danske Bank.
Here are the main moves in markets:
Stocks
    The S&P 500 sank 2.6% on Friday.
    Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 2.6%.
    Hang Seng futures declined 2.4%.
    Futures on Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 1.3%.
Currencies
    The yen rose 0.3% to 105.03 per dollar.
    The offshore yuan dropped 0.6% to 7.1752 per dollar.
    The euro gained 0.1% to $1.1152.
    The Aussie fell 0.3% to 67.40 U.S. cents.
Bonds
    The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell seven basis points to 1.54% on Friday.
Commodities
    West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.1% to $54.17 a barrel.
    Gold surged 1.9% to $1,526.96 an ounce.

Gold prices set on the 127% Fibo extension target

  • Gold prices on Friday were higher following the trade war escalations and a weaker dollar. 
  • Powell, as expected, gave a balanced assessment of monetary policy.
Spot prices rallied to a high of $1,530.22 from a low of $1,493 on the day, ending 1.86% higher ahead of what is expected to be a bullish open in Sydney today and for the ahead.
On Friday, China announced retaliatory tariffs on USD75 billion of US imports on Friday, effective 1st September and 15th December - US autos will have a 25% tariff imposed from 15 December, and other tariffs are 5-10%.
Then, President Trump stated that the 10% levy on USD300 billion of Chinese goods would be raised to 15% and the existing 25% levy on USD250 billion of Chinese goods would lift to 30%. Trump also urged US companies to pull out of China and produce in the US and there has been some talk of how he can legally force companies to stop trading with whichever country he chooses.  The entire story completely overshadowed the Jackson Hole symposium where the main event was Fed Chair Powell’s speech.

Powell: "Economy is in a good place and that the Fed will act appropriately ... " ...

Powell, as expected, gave a balanced assessment of monetary policy but repeated that there are significant risks to the economy from external economic developments and trade frictions. He noted that the economy is in a good place and that the Fed will act appropriately to maintain the expansion. Taken together with the tariff news, market pricing for US rate cuts increased slightly.
"At the same time, diverse views have been expressed by other Fed officials on the need for further US rate cuts," analysts at ANZ Bank explained:
"Regional Fed Presidents George, Harker, and Rosengren have voiced their resistance to lower interest rates, noting solid US data, financial stability risks, and the need for a long-term view. Meanwhile, Kaplan said he has an open mind about further action, and Bullard advocated for a 50bp cut at the upcoming meeting as an insurance cut. Market pricing is on the side of the dovish officials, with a full cut priced in for September and 100bp of Fed cuts priced in by mid-2020."
We now await the Sydney gold open and it is worth noting that gold futures rallied on Friday as well on China’s plan for retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods. The December gold climbed by $29.10, or 1.9%, to settle at $1,537.60 on Comex as being the highest most-active contract settlement since April 2013 and prices were up 0.9%, following weekly gains in each of the past three weeks.

Gold levels

The market is a spike away from a breach of the 1535s. A break there guards a longer run higher with the first major stop on the map being the 127.2% Fibo target which is located around 1,560, guarding the Oct 2012 highs at 1795. On the downside, should there be some fundamental switch up, bears can target a 23.6% retracement to 1472 ahead of a 50% mean reversion to 1401.
*Note:-
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The AUD/JPY pair opened with a bearish gap on trade-war escalation

  • AUD/JPY is in a continuation of the downside, pressure below 75 handle.
  • The bears look to a long term 78.6% Fibo target that marries up with the Jan 2003 swing lows.
The AUD/JPY pair opened with a bearish gap, to be expected considering the geopolitical climate over the trade war escalations. AUD/JPY is currently trading at 0.7073 and has fallen right on the 6th August lows and just a touch off the 2019 lows, (which even broker you use will have their own low for the year as it was a flash crash that printed the low). AUD/JPY is -0.59% on the session so far.
On Friday, the US stock markets finished deeply in the red which has weighed on the cross as the FX market's risk barometer. AUD/JPY is also weighed on directly related to commodity priced and Chinese economic growth. The fact that the Reserve Bank of Australia will now be expected to cut interest rates sooner than later is an additional weight on the bar also.

Trade war escalations

Trump urged US companies to pull out of China and produce in the US following the Chinese announcement of retaliatory tariffs on USD75bn of US imports on Friday, effective 1 September and 15 December. Then, President Trump stated that the 10% levy on USD300bn of Chinese goods would be raised to 15% and the existing 25% levy on USD250bn of Chinese goods would lift to 30%. 
"The latest escalation suggests that uncertainty will continue to weigh on global trade, industrial production, and investment in the months ahead, with no sign of a resolution anytime soon. That said, the US and Japan agreed in principle to a trade deal at the G7 over the weekend, offering a glimmer of hope for world trade,"
analysts at ANZ Bank explained this morning. 

AUD/JPY levels

There is a bearish bias while below the 75 handle and the 72.20 resistance. Depending on your broker's 2019 low, the pair can continue south. Pulling up the long-term charts, dating back to the global financial crisis, we can see that the cross is on its way towards the 78.6% Fibo target that marries up with the Jan 2003 swing lows - This is located at 66.40.
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Friday, August 23, 2019

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Deeper Drop Seen After Consolidation

AUD/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK: BEARISH

  • Australian Dollar idling near 2019 low against US counterpart
  • Long-term chart setup flags room for substantially deeper drop
  • Invalidation point for near-term bearish bias now above 0.70
Get help building confidence in your AUD/USD strategy with our free trading guide!
The Australian Dollar continues to idle above support marked by the 2019 swing low at 0.6827 as traders struggle to establish conviction. A break downward confirmed on a daily closing basis initially opens the door to challenge the August 7 swing low at 0.6677.
Resistance stands in the 0.6827-65 area, a former support shelf. A turn back above that faces a minor barrier at 0.6911, the July 10 low. Neutralizing the broadly bearish bias in overall positioning probably requires a close above trend resistance set from December 2018, now at 0.7033.
Australian Dollar vs US Dollar price chart - daily

Zooming out to the monthly chart for a bit of perspective is a useful exercise amid choppy near-term price action. Here we see prices have breached the bounds of an 18-year rising trend as well as a support block capping downside progress since September 2015.
The implications appear to be quite dire. Not only has the structural trend seemingly shifted to point downward, but the next layer of significant support looks to be some ways away, starting at 0.6352. That speaks to space for a further depreciation in excess of 6 percent in the months ahead.
Australian Dollar vs US Dollar price chart - monthly

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We see further downside for global economy in coming months - Danske Bank



Danske Bank analysts expect the global economy to continue to weaken in coming months but see a stabilisation and a modest rebound on the back of monetary and fiscal stimulus after that.

Key quotes 

"Our new base case of no solution to the trade war between China and the US ahead of the 2020 US presidential election has led us to downgrade our growth trajectory for both advanced and emerging markets."

"The risk of a more pronounced downturn has increased (we assume 30% probability of a recession in the next two years). However, in our view, there is also possible upside from a sudden breakthrough in US-China trade negotiations, more aggressive central bank easing and still strong consumer confidence."
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Tuesday, August 20, 2019

Analog IC Market 2019: Growth Opportunities, Driving Factors by Top Manufacturers, Regions, Type, Application, Market Forecast to 2024

Aug 14, 2019 (The Expresswire) -- Analog IC Market 2019: Recent Trends, Size,Growth, Top Manufacturers, Recent Development and Forecast To 2024 
Analog IC Market Report Highlights key rising opportunities of the fastest growing Analog IC Market with Key Regions Considering assessment of the present market. The Analog IC Market Report Provides foremost areas as well as Top Market Manufacturers Analysis With Product type and application.
Report Overview:
The points that are discussed within the report are the major market players that are involved in the Analog IC market such as manufacturers, raw material suppliers, equipment suppliers, end users, traders, distributors and etc.The growth factors of the market is discussed in detail wherein the different end users of the market are explained in detail.Data and information by manufacturer, by region, by type, by application is given and custom research can be added according to specific requirements.
Request a sample copy of the report -https://www.360marketupdates.com/enquiry/request-sample/13436000
About Analog IC Market :
Analog IC market size will grow from XX Million in 2018 to XX Million by 2024, at an estimated CAGR of XX %. The base year considered for the study is 2017, and the market size is projected from 2018 to 2023.Automotive application segment is expected to register relatively higher growth rates during the forecast period, due to developments in the field of automotive safety and driver information systems. Several advanced automotive technologies that go beyond touchscreens, satellite radio, and voice-activated GPS commands are being continuously tested and improved, and are expected to be adopted in new car models, resulting in solid growth for the global analog IC market during the forecast period. Additionally, industrial, energy, and defense sectors are growing in terms of IC adoption in applications such as factory automation, solar energy, and electronic warfare systems.
Analog IC Market key Segmentation:

  • Leading manufacturers of Analog IC Market:- Qualcomm Technologies Inc., STMicroelectronics, Analog Devices Inc., Infineon Technologies AG, NXP Semiconductors, Maxim Integrated, Skyworks Solutions Inc., ON Semiconductor, Linear Technology ,
  • Analog IC Market by Product Type:- Application Specific IC, General Purpose IC ,
  • Analog IC Market by Application:- TypeCommunication, Consumer Electronics, Automotive, Industrial, Medical and Healthcare, Others

  • Scope of Analog IC Market by Region:

  • North America(UnitedStates, Canada, andMexico)
  • Europe(Germany, UK, France, Italy, Russia, Spain, andBenelux)
  • Asia Pacific(China, Japan, India, Southeast Asia, andAustralia)

  • Inquire more or share questions if any before the purchase on this report -https://www.360marketupdates.com/enquiry/pre-order-enquiry/13436000
    The Questions Answered by Analog IC Market Report:

  • What are the Key Manufacturers, raw material suppliers, equipment suppliers, end users, traders And distributorsin Analog IC Market ?
  • What are Growth factors influencing Analog IC Market Growth?
  • What are production processes, major issues, and solutions to mitigate the development risk ?
  • What is the Contribution from Regional Manufacturers?
  • What are the Key Market segment, market potential, influential trends, and the challenges that the market is facing ?

  • Key Reasons to Purchase This Report:

  • To gain insightful analyses of the market and have comprehensive understanding of the global market and its commercial landscape.
  • Assess the production processes, major issues, and solutions to mitigate the development risk.
  • To understand the most affecting driving and restraining forces in the market and its impact in the global market.
  • Learn about the market strategies that are being adopted by leading respective organizations.
  • To understand the future outlook and prospects for the market.
  • Besides the standard structure reports, we also provide custom research according to specific requirements.

  • Purchase this report (Price3500 USD for a single-user license)-https://www.360marketupdates.com/purchase/13436000
    Table of Content of The Report

    Chapter 1- Analog IC Industry Overview:


  • 1.1 Definition
  • 1.2 Brief Introduction of Major Classifications
  • 1.3 Brief Introduction of Major Applications
  • 1.4 Brief Introduction of Major Regions
  • Chapter 2- Production Market Analysis:


  • 2.1 Global Production Market Analysis
  • 2.1.1 Global Capacity, Production, Capacity Utilization Rate, Ex-Factory Price, Revenue, Cost, Gross and Gross Margin Analysis
  • 2.1.2 Major Manufacturers Performance and Market Share
  • 2.2 Regional Production Market Analysis
  • Chapter 3- Sales Market Analysis:


  • 3.1 Global Sales Market Analysis
  • 3.2 Regional Sales Market Analysis
  • Chapter 4- Consumption Market Analysis:


  • 4.1 Global Consumption Market Analysis
  • 4.2 Regional Consumption Market Analysis
  • Chapter 5- Production, Sales and Consumption Market Comparison Analysis

    Chapter 6- Major Manufacturers Production and Sales Market Comparison Analysis

    Chapter 7- Major Classification Analysis

     

    Chapter 8- Major Application Analysis

     

    Chapter 9- Industry Chain Analysis:


  • 9.1 Up Stream Industries Analysis
  • 9.2 Manufacturing Analysis
  • Chapter 10- Global and Regional Market Forecast:


  • 10.1 Production Market Forecast
  • 10.2 Sales Market Forecast
  • 10.3 Consumption Market Forecast
  • Chapter 11- Major Manufacturers Analysis


  • 11.1 Analog IC
  • 11.1.1 Company Introduction
  • 11.1.2 Product Specification and Major Types Analysis
  • 11.1.3 Production Market Performance
  • 11.1.4 Sales Market Performance
  • 11.1.5 Contact Information
  • 11.2.1 Company Introduction
  • 11.2.2 Product Specification and Major Types Analysis
  • 11.2.3 Production Market Performance
  • 11.2.4 Sales Market Performance
  • 11.2.5 Contact Information
  • Chapter 12- New Project Investment Feasibility Analysis:


  • 12.1 New Project SWOT Analysis
  • 12.2 New Project Investment Feasibility Analysis

  • Continued...
    Look into Table of Content of Analog IC Market Report -https://www.360marketupdates.com/TOC/13436000
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    Tuesday, August 13, 2019

    Brexit LIVE: Hammond attacks 'terrifying' Brexiteer Rees-Mogg - Tory civil war breaks out

    Sir Ivan Rogers said he discussed the same dilemma with Boris Johnson, the favourite to become the next prime minister. The former diplomat told the Foreign Affairs Committee Mrs May’s speech setting out her Brexit red lines prompted him to think they would cause a stir in Brussels. In 2016 Sir Ivan said to the Prime Minister: “You have made three commitments in good faith to different audiences, but they are not really compatible with each other.”


    Philip Hammond hit out at Jacob Rees-Mogg today You have made three commitments but they are not really compatible with each other
    Sir Ivan Rogers
    “You have said to the Irish under no circumstances will a hard border be erected across the island of Ireland.
    “You have said to the Democratic Unionist community under no circumstances will there be divergence from the rest of Great Britain.
    “And you have said to the right of your own party that you are heading out of the customs union.
    “You can’t do all three. You have got to choose two of the three.”
    The backstop agreement - a last-resort mechanism to prevent a hard border in the island of Ireland if no post-Brexit deal is negotiated - proved to be a major sticking point and helped lead to Mrs May’s demise in Downing Street.
    Sir Ivan also said he issued Tory leadership contender Mr Johnson with the same warning when he was foreign secretary.
    He quit as the UK permanent representative in Brussels in 2017 after clashing with ministers over Brexit.
    And today Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay faces an MP grilling days after firing a warning to Brussels.
    SCROLL DOWN FOR FURTHER BREXIT LIVE UPDATES

    Jeremy Hunt said he would be happy to serve in a Johnson administration 10.50pm update: Hunt says backstop not acceptable, 'has to go!'
    At the final hustings before the new prime minister is announced next week, Jeremy Hunt was asked if Theresa May's Withdrawal Agreement is dead.
    He said: "As it is now, yes.
    "I want to get a deal and so we've got to make some profound changes to that Withdrawal Agreement.
    "That doesn't mean ripping up the whole thing but it does mean that the backstop has to go."
    He added: "The reason why our parliament did not accept the backstop is because it traps us in the EU customs union tariffs until such a time as the EU gives us permission not to follow EU tariffs and that is not acceptable."
    He said it would be a "huge honour to serve Boris in a way that unites our country."
    9.23pm update: Johnson administration would not join forces with Farage
    Boris Johnson rules teaming up with the Brexit Party to keep Jeremy Corbyn out of Number 10. 
    He said: “I don’t think we should do deals with any party. We are the Conservative Party, we’re a great party.”
    He added: "I rule it out!"
    9.12pm update: Johnson promises to 'turn this thing around' 
    Speaking at the final hustings of the Conservative leadership campaign in East London, Tory leadership frontfunner Boris Johnson said he is the man to unite the country and restore the party to its former state. 
    He said there was a lot of work to do but first and foremost "we need to get Brexit done by October 31".
    He dismissed Project Fear narratives that the UK would see major disruption in the event of a no-deal Brexit, including suggestions that flights would be halted and food supplies would decrease.
    Seeking to inject some energy into his campaign, he asked the audience: "I tell you, the planes will fly whatever deal we do - and it will be a great deal.
    "The planes will fly and there will be clean drinking water, my friends, and there will be adequate supplies of glucose and milk solids and whey to make the Mars bars that we need because where there's a will there's a way!"
    7.25pm update: Rudd warns new PM must compromise on Brexit 
    Work and Pensions Secretary Amber Rudd has warned the next prime minister they will have to compromise on a Brexit deal when they “collide with reality”. 
    Ms Rudd, who is backing Jeremy Hunt to succeed Theresa May, said she was “surprised” at the hardline Brexit stance of Mr Hunt and his rival Boris Johnson.
    Both men have refused to rule out crashing the UK out of the EU without a deal. 
    But Ms Rudd told Politico: "I think they will find they have to compromise.
    "I was surprised by what they both said and I think their views will collide with the reality when whichever one wins, starts negotiating and starts dealing with a Parliament which may be more difficult than they think to engage with."
    6.45pm update: Ireland to oppose EU daylight saving times over post-Brexit fears 
    The Irish government is set to oppose the EU’s proposed change to daylight saving time over fears it could lead to the island of Ireland being split into two time zones after the UK has left the EU. 
    Ray Bassett, the Eurosceptic former Irish ambassador to Canada, Jamaica and the Bahamas, immediately welcomed the news.
    He said the same logic, of avoiding barriers between Northern Ireland and the Republic, should be applied to Brexit and the backstop. 
    Mr Bassett said: "At last logic and geography is set to triumph over Europhilia in Dublin.
    "It is a pity that the same reasoning, namely the need to avoid creating new barriers between the two parts of Ireland and with GB, was not used when it came to Brexit and the Backstop."
    Ireland's justice minister Charlie Flanagan is expected to seek Cabinet approval on Wednesday to oppose the EU’s plans to abolish clock changes in the spring and autumn. 
    Read the full story here. 
    5.43pm update: Government defeated in Lords vote
    Theresa May’s Government has been heavily defeated in the House of Lords by peers aiming to stop a no-deal Brexit being forced through while Parliament is suspended. 
    Thirteen Tory peers rebelled to back a cross-party bid to block such a move, which at 272 to 169 won by a majority of 103.
    The vote came as fears mount over whether Boris Johnson could try to prorogue Parliament to force through a no-deal exit from the EU if he succeeds Mrs May. 
    5.29pm update: Has racism in UK increased since the Brexit vote? 
    A former British Army officer of British-Indian descent has said people have told him to “go home” more times since the 2016 referendum than in the 10 years leading up to the vote. 
    Nino Singh Judge was born in Tanzania before moving to the UK from Zambia in 1978. 
    In an interview with the Press Association, he said while he did experience racism during his early days in Britain, it soon died down and he forgot about it - until the country voted to leave the European Union. 
    He said: "Back in the 1970s it was quite common, you would be chased down the street by thugs asking why you didn't just go home,.
    "It was said less and less in the 1980s and 1990s. It reached a point where I almost forgot that the sentiment existed."
    Mr Judge, who served in the Army for six years, said he has been "told 'Paki, go home’ more times since the Brexit vote than in the 10 years before that". 
    He said his experience has convinced him the UK is "going backwards to the bad old days” and makes him feel “not wanted” in a nation he calls home.
    He added: “I would have given my life for my country during my time in the Army - I still would.”

    Boris Johnson holds up a packaged kipper during his speech at the final hustings 3.47pm update: May defends backstop in Withdrawal Agreement 
    Theresa May has defende the backstop, the main sticking point in her doomed deal.
    She said whoever succeeds her as premier, will have the task of finding a way to ensure people living in Northern Ireland can go about their day-to-day lives unemcumbered by a border. 
    In her last major speech as Prime Minister, she said: "At the heart of the Belfast Good Friday Agreement is an essential compromise that people who are Irish can live in Northern Ireland as part of the United Kingdom."
    She added: "People are working actively on altrnative technological solutions to the border issue.
    "But that was why I thought that was important."
    3.40pm update: May skirts around question on further Brexit extension to avoid no-deal
    When asked if she thought another Brexit extention would be a better option that a no-deal Brexit, Theresa May simply reiterated her firm stance against crashing out of the bloc. . 
    She said: "You know, full well, that my view is the best route for the UK is to leave the European Union with a good deal."
    3.29pm update: 'No greater regret' for May than being unable to deliver Brexit
    In a speech at Chatham House, outgoing Prime Minister Theresa May said the only way to solve the Brexit impasse is to deliver on the result of the June 2016 referendum.
    She said: "There's no greater regret for me that I could not do so.
    "But whatever path we take must be sustainable for the long term, so that delivering Brexit brings our country back together. That has to mean some kind of compromise. 
    "Some argue I should have taken the United Kingdom out of the European Union with no deal on March 29, some wanted a purer version of Brexit, others to find a way of stopping it altogether."
    She went on to defend her failed Brexit deal, saying it honoured the result of the referendum "while also responding to those who had voted to Remain". 
    3.17pm update: Johnson appoints Eurosceptic Daniel Moylan to run his Brexit plan
    Tory leadership hopeful Boris Johnson has chosen Daniel Moylan, his former adviser during his terms as London Mayor, to run his policy on leaving the EU, The Daily Telegraph reports.
    Mr Moylan served as deputy chairman of Transport for London and a mayoral adviser in various capacities.
    2.06pm update: Philip Hammond launches attack on Rees-Mogg
    Chancellor Philip Hammond has taken to Twitter to hit back at Jacob Rees-Mogg following the back-bencher's criticism this morning.
    Mr Hammond, referring to Mr Rees-Mogg's article on the "Treasury's deeply flawed economic models" for Brexit, said: "Happy to debate scale of negative impact of no deal on the economy - but terrifying that someone this close to a potential future government can think we'd actually be better off by adding barriers to access to our largest market."
    1.25pm update: Boris plans to bypass Parliamant, says key supporter
    Boris Johnson will bypass Parliament to secure Brexit, but maybe not by shutting down MPs, according to Andrea Leadsom.
    The key ally of the Tory leadership contender told LBC: “I do not think that prorogation is a tactic that any Prime Minister would employ.
    "But there are different aspects to this. Prorogation can take place in the event a General Election is called, or a decision to prorogue at the end of a session.
    "All of these things are very well-established parliamentary procedures."
    12.58pm update: Brexit “could be our moon landing”
    Conservative MP George Freeman said Brexit could be like the UK's own moon landing moment.
    Mr Freeman told MPs: "Sixty years ago JFK electrified the world and united a divided and fearful nation with the inspiring Apollo moonshot programme - which also helped to defeat the Soviet Union and lay the foundations for US technology leadership."
    He added: "Brexit can and must be a moonshot moment for British science and innovation to tackle global challenges."
    Responding, the Prime Minister said: "We're a global leader in science and innovation.
    "We will continue to do that once we leave the European Union and of course leaving the EU will open opportunities for UK science and innovation to tackle global challenges."
    11.35am update: Lammy take swipe at Rees-Mogg Brexit boost claims
    Labour MP David Lammy has hit out at Jacob Rees-Mogg who suggested Britain’s economy could receive an £80bn boost in the event of a no deal Brexit.
    Mr Lammy tweeted: “Jacob Rees-Mogg again conflating ‘our economy’ with his investment firm ‘Somerset Capital’.
    “Maybe you are in for a huge personal ‘boost’ if we crash out with no deal but all of our constituents will suffer terribly.”
    11.24am update: No deal Brexit “more likely than people assume”
    Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay has warned a no deal Brexit is more likely than people assume.
    He said he refuses to back Tory leadership favourite Boris Johnson’s claim the chances of living the EU without a withdrawal agreement were just one million to one.
    11.19am update: Barclay says “disruptive” no deal better than no Brexit
    Giving evidence to the Commons Exiting the European Union Committee, Stephen Barclay acknowledged that a no deal Brexit would be "disruptive" but it would be better than not leaving the EU at all.
    He told MPs: ”A no deal Brexit would be disruptive.
    "But no Brexit is the worst of those two outcomes."
    Following warnings from the National Farmers' Union that a no deal exit from the EU would result in shepherds being forced to slaughter their flocks because there would be no market for their meat, Mr Barclay acknowledged the problems that would face the industry.
    He said the sheep meat industry was an "outlier" because 97 percent of exports go to the EU but the Government was working on intervention measures and compensation.

    Steve Barclay 
    10.58am update: Brexit Secretary offers reassurances on EU police and criminal databases
    Brexit Secretary Steve Barclay has told MPs British access to EU police and criminal databases could still be available after a no deal departure.
    He said the issue was a matter for discussion but thought there would be a “renewed focus” on finding a solution if a no deal Brexit became more likely.
    10.31am update: Barclay quizzed over no deal “deals”
    Tory hardline Peter Bone asked Brexit Secretary Steve Barclay if a no deal departure really meant there would be no deals at all.
    Mr Barclay said there are some agreements in place that would swing into effect in the event of no deal Brexit.
    He said people tended to use the term “no deal” to mean the UK leaving without a withdrawal agreement in place.
    Mr Barclay says some side agreements with the EU would be in place in such a scenario.
    10.27am update: Barclay says trade talks would follow no deal Brexit
    Stephen Barclay says he believes a No Deal Brexit should lead “quickly” to talks on a future trade deal.
    10.25am: Barclay says Barnier “confrontation” was misinterpreted
    Steve Barclay told Brexit Committee members his meeting with Michel Barnier had been misrepresented and insisted he was just making the point to the EU chief negotiator the withdrawal agreement as it stands would not get through Parliament.
    He said: “There has been quite a lot of misleading information about my meeting with Michel Barnier.
    He said: “In terms of the withdrawal agreement, what I said was that the House had rejected it three times, including the third time by a significant margin; that the European election results in my view had further hardened attitudes across the house and that the text, unchanged, I did not envisage going through the House.
    “I don’t think that was a particularly controversial observation.”
    He was responding to a question from committee chairman Hilary Benn who asked him about reports that he had "ruffled feathers" during the “confrontational exchange” had left Mr Barnier “astonished and dismayed”.
    10.17am update: Barclay acknowledges Brexit impact on UK car industry
    Asked if there would be compensation for the car industry if it faced 10 percent tariffs for exports to the EU in a no-deal situation, Mr Barclay said: "What I'm saying is we are having extensive discussions with the industry, including the Prime Minister this week, because it is more nuanced."
    He said the Government would "need to look at what the implications are in terms of trade flow across the borders" and what the situation is at the English Channel crossings which are vital for supply chains.
    Mr Barclay said: "Of course there will be impact, but the future trend is into areas such as electric vehicles and there's a huge amount the Government can do in those areas, it's not just what we have got in terms of the status quo."
    The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders believes that no deal is "not an option" but Mr Barclay said that was factually incorrect because it remained the legal default.
    He acknowledged it was "undesirable" and "disruptive", adding: "Are there mitigations the Government can take? Yes. Do I sit here saying that will be a panacea to all issues? No."

    Philip Hammond has clashed with Jacob Rees-Mogg 
    10.16am update: Hammond clashes with Rees-Mogg over cost of no deal Brexit
    Chancellor Philip Hammond clashed with Tory Eurosceptic Jacob Rees-Mogg about the impact of a no-deal Brexit.
    Mr Rees-Mogg, a prominent supporter of Boris Johnson, used a Daily Telegraph opinion piece to dismiss the "silliness" of forecasts suggesting a £90 billion hit to the economy.
    Mr Hammond said: "Happy to debate scale of negative impact of no deal on the economy - but terrifying that someone this close to a potential future government can think we'd actually be better off by adding barriers to access to our largest market."
    8.53am update: Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay faces MPs after EU attack
    Brexit Secretary Stephen Barclay will be grilled by MPs this morning - just days after a showdown with Michel Barnier caused fury in Brussels.
    Mr Barclays told the EU's Brexit negotiator five times Britain that Theresa May's deal was now dead.
    The comments saw the UK's Brexit man described as "brutal, bullying, bad tempered and confrontational" by EU officials.
    Mr Barclay is facing the Hilary Benn-led Commons Brexit Committee at 10am to update on the state of play in Brexit.

    Stephen Barclay goes before the Brexit committee 
    8.36am update: Brexit sparks Huge surge in demand for driving permits
    More than half a million permits which may be required to drive abroad after Brexit have been bought since February, according to Government figures.
    During the past five months, 584,000 International Driving Permits (IDPs) have been issued at a cost of £5.50 each, transport minister Michael Ellis revealed in an answer to a written parliamentary question.
    That means the total amount spent exceeds £3.2 million.
    The RAC described the demand as "truly astonishing" and urged the Government to ensure post offices are ready for a "sudden surge" ahead of the latest Brexit deadline of October 31.
    Driving licences issued by European Union states are valid for trips within the European Economic Area (EEA), which is the EU plus Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway.
    UK motorists may require IDPs to drive in the EEA in the event of a no-deal Brexit, leading many holidaymakers and business travellers to purchase the documents.

    Andrea Leadsom would not support the suspension of Parliament to get Brexit through 
    8.24am update: Leadsom rules out support for proroguing Parliament
    Boris Johnson supporter Andrea Leadsom has indicated she would not support the suspension of Parliament to get a no-deal Brexit through but said she did not believe the Tory leadership frontrunner would take that step.
    Mr Johnson has refused to rule out proroguing Parliament in order to prevent MPs blocking a no-deal Brexit.
    Former Commons leader Mrs Leadsom said: "I don't think that prorogation is the right thing to do and I don't think a prime minister would choose to do that."
    Asked if she would go along with it if Mr Johnson took that course of actio

    Sir Ivan Rogers gives evidence to the foreign affairs select committee 
    7.30am updates: New PM urged to lower migrant salary threshold
    The next prime minister should lower the salary threshold for migrant workers from £30,000 to £20,000 to avoid post-Brexit skills shortages, a coalition of business and education bodies has said.
    The group, which includes the British Retail Consortium, business advocacy group London First and Universities UK, has written to both Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt urging them to commit to clear action on reforming the immigration system should they secure the top job.
    As well as lowering the salary threshold, they want the Government to extend the temporary work route for overseas workers from one year to two years and revise the sponsorship model to make it easier for firms of all sizes to bring in the overseas talent they need.
    They are also calling for the reinstatement of the two-year post-study visa for international students to work in the UK after graduation.
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